Bitcoin (BTC) is regaining ground towards the end of June and is once more trading in the $20,000 range. Bitcoin fluctuates between the lower limit of $20,000 and the $21,600 rejected in recent weeks. Despite this, all markets and investors continue to be cautious, particularly because of a macroeconomic situation that hasn’t existed in a long time, but also because of the appealing stock prices. What investing or moving toward safer assets can we learn from this market? Without further ado, let’s get to the bitcoin 360° point for this week. I’ll do my best to be as thorough as I can when I discuss my thoughts on the market.
A SP500 decline of -20%
Like any analysis’s start, I’m curious about the SP500. The latter serves as the general driving factor for the various markets and provides a broad overview of investor psychology.
I continue to be short on current prices with an index at $3,800 for the simple reason that we are still below the $4,200 resistance level. Zone therefore in sellers’ advantage until getting close to $3,200–3,400.
However, there are some encouraging signs in favor of buyers, like as the bullish engulfing from last week or the support around the 70 percent Fibonacci level.
I can quite easily picture a period of several months, favored by the summer break and perhaps with less volatility to come.
An unmoving bitcoin
On a more medium- to long-term graph, the decline in bitcoin velocity is very evident. The king digital asset has dropped by more than 70%, and it has now reached its 200-period moving average. The latter has frequently served as assistance and can be appealing to customers looking for references. Additionally, this level coincides with the previous 2017 high, indicating additional support.
But whether there will be sufficient purchasers to stop the trend is still uncertain. If not, losing this level will undoubtedly result in a deeper fall into the next support level at $11,000.
Additionally, I have chosen a tweet from Trader XM1 that emphasizes the idea of manipulation and a pattern, and hence a recurrent figure on various prior data.
This enables me to warn you that while they are noteworthy and intriguing to highlight, they are not necessarily a predictor of what will occur in the future. There have been several changes, such as the altered macro or the democratization of the environment.
A recession or not?
The issue of a potential future recession is one that is rising to the surface more frequently. Although widely anticipated, it is nevertheless challenging to characterize. The future is still unclear, particularly because of the unstable atmosphere.
Traders pay attention to what the Fed says. In contrast, Mary C. Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, stated during a LinkedIn online event that the latter does not prioritize the pursuit of price stability over that of full employment. She claimed that establishing price stability is a crucial component of reaching full employment.
Remember how Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, stated during last week’s Congress that stabilizing the economy and reducing inflation are priorities at any costs?
The Fed anticipates that US economic growth will slow but does not anticipate a recession as it increases its benchmark rate to restrain demand and cut inflation.
I wouldn’t be astonished if growth were less than 2 percent, but I don’t anticipate it to fall below zero, said Daly. The unemployment rate will slightly rise as a result of the slowdown in growth.
We’re not in a recession just because the unemployment rate is a little higher, she said. Instead, she continued, “it is a relaxation from what was an unsustainable level.”
Finally, I frequently get inquiries about the website where I evaluate my beliefs. I personally use TradingView, which has a user-friendly design, a ton of tools, and a broad selection of assets, and I have for a long time. It is without a doubt the most advanced and popular interface available.
