United States, China, and Russia. The three largest nations in the earth are all going through various kinds of problems. If certain conditions are met, Bitcoin might very well have a significant impact on each of its nations. Uncertainty and speculation about the future of the globe!
Three powers in difficulty.
The three most powerful nations in the world today are all having problems, but for very different causes. The United States is essentially divided internally, with a nation that is splitting apart to the point where it may at least be described as a binational entity. While China is struggling economically, Russia is mired in conflict with Ukraine on the military front.
It is unnecessary to point out that Europe is no longer a major military player and that the only reason the tsarist soldiers haven’t arrived in Berlin is because of the invaluable security provided by the United States.
Disillusionment in China
China’s economic catch-up has been extraordinarily spectacular in recent decades, but it is not in a position to displace American power. Numerous journalists predicted the Middle Kingdom’s emergence a few years ago. America was nothing more than a fading old power, mired in the Middle East and a real estate-related financial disaster. China, on the other hand, needed to be on the cutting edge of technology while relying on a large demographic.
We had already transitioned to half growth on the eve of the pandemic from double-digit growth of roughly 10% in the 2000s. The upward impacts of catching up tended to slow down, according to the apparent pattern. China was now required to innovate and cease stealing the inventions created in American research labs. Even as China changed its industrial policy from regional initiatives to national coordination, the economic slowdown was taking place.
The turning point of this story occurred when, in the summer of 2020, China appeared to have recovered more quickly than Westerners. The Chinese miracle was hailed as a miracle by many.
“We don’t wear masks here in the West. In China, hospitals are constructed in just 14 days. In truth, we no longer produce the weight. (I’m sorry to inform you that the Chinese hospitals were inoperable and covered in muck if you, too, had succumbed for the propaganda of the Chinese Communist Party.)
China won’t surpass the United States
The CCP began some extremely unsuccessful totalitarian economic experiments in 2021. The notion that freedom is the best tool for innovation and prosperity troubles Xi Jinping. The government attacked the real estate sector (30 percent of the GDP), which led to a significant crash, after suffocating the technical sector with rapid legislation. The Chinese banking industry is currently under significant risk as a result of the surge of payment defaults.
The Chinese communists initially considered taking resources out of technology fields like video games, which the government viewed as immoral and devirilizing, and transferring them to fields like semiconductors or aviation. There has always been a planning mentality among Communists and Fascists that is oriented toward heavy industry.
Separately, China’s nationalist government has been denied access to efficient messenger RNA vaccinations to stop COVID as a result of America’s refusal to acknowledge victory in the vaccine race. Instead, up to this point, the CCP has consistently used lockdowns to enforce its zero covid policy. It is unlikely that the BA.5 variation will improve the problem, and additional confinements should be anticipated.
China would have seen annual growth of 0.4%, based on government statistics. Additionally, the CCP claims that the Uyghur camps are summer camps. As a result, we shall disregard the accuracy of these numbers, which are unquestionably considerably below the zero line. with a 19.3% youth unemployment rate, a record.
Most likely, China has already entered a recession. Of course, it would not be appropriate to turn around and immediately rush to the epilogue if it is not reasonable to claim that China is the new unchallenged power. neither immortal nor perishing. Wavering.
What part might bitcoin play in a communist China that is unable to replace the United States?
Bitcoin won’t be allowed in China as long as Xi Jinping attempts to govern his populace and holds so much power in his hands.
The BTC could, however, play a part if Xi Jinping suffered a stroke or heart attack (diseases prevalent at age 70) and were to be replaced by a more pragmatic figure like Deng Xiaoping or Hu Jintao in their time.
Whether it be to develop a currency alternative to the dollar or as a means of mining income (the CCP has no use for ESG purposes).
Instead of picking ways to develop China internationally over the past ten years, Xi has primarily attempted to increase the CCP’s control over the lives of the populace. Why do you want him to support BTC, a thing we have no influence over? And not just any item, but money, the most valuable commodity.
Will the Chinese Communist Party’s ruling class recognize that the man they have given the title of lifelong dictator is unable to implement a successful economic strategy that would defeat Uncle Sam and the Indian outsider in the near future? Do they still possess the authority to appoint Premier Li Keqiang to succeed Xi as Xi’s replacement?
In other words, as long as Xi Jinping’s neo-Maoist CCP is in power, it will continue to fight an all-out battle against bitcoin. Nothing ought to be anticipated.
Putin: Would you prefer bitcoin to the dollar?
Let’s now talk about how Russia uses bitcoin.
The invasion of Ukraine by the Czar sent the ruble on an up-and-down roller coaster, confirming the dollar’s dominance as the world’s reserve currency. Following Western sanctions, the ruble fell to its lowest point and has since artificially recovered. There is no doubt that this comeback did not correspond to an improvement in the increasingly interventionist Russian economy.
The ruble’s strength is fabricated.
For instance, businesses were immediately compelled to convert a sizeable portion of their income denominated in foreign currencies into rubles. The growing cost of raw commodities also contributed favorably to the rouble’s worth.
Because of this, it is important to qualify the ruble’s strength. The ruble will actually be brittle as long as Westerners uphold their honor and continue to impose sanctions. Then again, what good is having a “strong” currency if its foreign owners are unable to transact with it?
In spite of the fact that Putin’s propaganda is widely disseminated on Twitter and in the cryptosphere, let’s face it: Russia is not doing well at all. Electronics, IT, and other shortages of imported intermediate items are already having an adverse effect. These shortages affect all of Russian industry, which throws the supply chains out of equilibrium. Above all, without these elements, it will be challenging to sustain Putin’s military machine over time (this is the purpose of the sanctions). The tech elites from Russia also emigrated to Western corporations like Apple.
Keep in mind that Russia is nothing more than a massive gas station with 6,000 nuclear warheads.
Meanwhile, it appears that the nation is becoming more welcoming to BTC. Russia does not develop the chimerical desire that the ruble will replace the dollar, but China thinks that its digital yuan will replace the dollar.
Uncle Sam and the Grand Helmsman are not present.
What methods must be used if the Tsar is to avoid sanctions and the dollar without bowing to the CCP? Bitcoin.
Even if China backs Russia, their partnership is basically just one of necessity. China’s only defense against America and India is Russia. China is the only powerful ally that Russia has. Despite the fact that the balance of power was flipped during the Mao era, Putin does not fantasize about serving as Xi Jinping’s servant out of nostalgia for a larger Russia.
Bitcoin in a Russia ravaged by Inflation?
Putin is killing the Russian economy in order to further his war objectives. If the sanctions continue, Russia will eventually be held accountable for this suicide. An economy that is highly dependent on raw materials and exists in anarchy may eventually experience hyperinflation similar to that seen in Nigeria.
It would require at least a Marshall Plan to stop this impending inflationary calamity, even if Putin were to step down tomorrow. As can be seen in underdeveloped nations where inflation has wreaked havoc, bitcoin can therefore replace the weak national money. Russians are above all incredibly nationalistic, so I don’t anticipate them rushing to purchase USDT.
This hyperinflationary drama could, however, be partially avoided if Putin was able to find a way out like in 2014 by depending on the timidity of Western governments.
Will Putin be able to get his gas out of the West?
In exchange for a small amount of gas from Putin, Macron and Scholz are likely willing to sacrifice Ukrainian lives, and Boris Johnson, who had been admirably brave in the face of the czar, has just leaped. These weak European governments will cling to Putin’s first hand because they are ill-equipped to deal with the fury of the people. The West exclusively discusses negotiations with the despot, just like in 2014. Putin, though, always acts more aggressively when he perceives the West as being weak.
As a reminder, the inflation we see in Europe today frequently has a government source. The root causes of this include the enormous deficits, money printing, energy decisions involving nuclear power, and capitulation to Putin in 2014.
Saying that Putin would not have been able to create the war machine that is bloodying Ukraine if the West had voted on these sanctions in 2014 and that, in the interim, we might have found a substitute for Russian hydrocarbons.
Bitcoin, the US, and secession
Even while Trump and Biden’s wasteful actions have caused the US to experience historically high inflation, the issue is more complicated. It is more political and ideological in nature than it is economic.
The United States is a formidable military fortress. Russia and China are unable to invade it there. On the other hand, the US’s feeble attempts to arm Ukraine have made the condition of the Russian army known to the world.
America won’t be killed. It would likely be suicide if she decided not to continue.
Bitcoin De Roe v. Wade
The recent Supreme Court rulings are an excellent example of how divided Americans are now. Most importantly, they demonstrate in the open that the disagreements exist in reality and are not just Twitter memes.
Some Democrats are responding by wanting to expand the right to abortion until birth, while some Republican states have chosen to embrace reactionary maximalism with severe restrictions on this freedom.
Even if American opinion on the matter appears to be more moderate, both sides are growing more politicized and there is extreme polarization.
In the US more generally, political violence is on the rise. Antifa movements on the left, Capitol riots on the right. like the lead era in Italy throughout the 1970s. a time when there was an uptick in far-left and far-right terrorist acts.
Civil war tomorrow?
The biggest threat to the stability of the United States is a full-scale civil war between blue cities and red rural areas.
Many Americans, perhaps tens of millions, think that an election was rigged and that the country is no longer a democracy. American citizens are also armed. They also have a secessionist culture that is deeply ingrained in the psyche of the populace. For the time being, the right, and in particular the ethnonationalist alt right, are the main proponents of a secession.
Although unlikely, the possibility of an American Civil War modeled after the Spanish Civil War in the 1930s cannot be fully ruled out. And it’s possible that a political secession would be accompanied by a Fed secession. What function might bitcoin serve in this scenario?
The use of Bitcoin by American populists
Is the emergence of cryptocurrencies, notably bitcoin, Ron Paul seeking retaliation?
If bitcoin is not a political issue in France, it certainly is in the United States. (Unlike French people, Americans revere technology and comprehend inflation.
Cryptography has been cited as a key weapon against what they refer to as “the establishment” by individuals like Steve Bannon and Peter Thiel, two of Trump’s backers in 2016. Is using bitcoin the greatest method to weaken the US federal government, which the alt-right views as demonic and the root of “American decadence”?
The Republican Party may eventually shift away from its conservative stance and become a neo-Jacksonian populist platform. Unlike the “Make America Great Again” movement, which is led by nationalist conservatives who value unity and the flag. Also different from QAnon, who are illiterate, conspiratorial individuals who are ignorant of both technology and cryptography. This is also supported by Elon Musk’s recent statement, who is close to Thiel and recently expressed his support for the Republicans.
Peter Thiel said at the Bitcoin Miami conference, “Bitcoin will never be controlled by the government, unlike woke-influenced IT corporations.
This week, we discovered that the Texas Republican Party is pushing for a provision allowing residents to freely possess and utilize cryptocurrencies to be added to the state constitution.
In conclusion, bitcoin may very possibly have a significant political impact on American politics in the years to come. Whether in the setting of a civil war brought on by the extreme polarization, or in the case of a secessionist movement that would result in a break from the Fed. Alternatively, the Republican Party’s DNA may be changed to reflect a “ethno-techno-liberal” movement. Movement influenced more by conservative Reagan successors than by right-wing technologists like Thiel.
Bitcoin is a fascinating thing. What a widespread acceptance would mean on the political scene is still beyond our comprehension. It might, however, become a heated topic in the future.
